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nid 92346
May 01, 2026
arahman@vixio.com
Ukraine
National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
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1894 charsUkraine's National Bank Approves Stress Testing Methodology for 2026 Bank Resilience Assessment
On May 1, 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) approved a stress testing methodology as part of its 2026 bank resilience assessment. The stress testing represents the third phase of the NBU's bank resilience evaluation and aims to assess banks' ability to perform core functions under adverse conditions while supporting the broader economy.
The stress testing will evaluate 26 banks representing over 90 percent of banking system assets across a three-year forecast period using baseline and adverse macroeconomic scenarios. The baseline scenario is grounded in the NBU's macroeconomic forecasts and consensus exchange rate projections. The adverse scenario, which is not a forecast but a tool for stress testing purposes, assumes a deep and prolonged crisis involving real gross domestic product contraction in the first two years, accelerating inflation, rising interest rates, deteriorating corporate financial performance, and increased credit risk. The scenario includes gradual economic recovery in the third year.
The stress test evaluates key banking risks including credit risk from loan defaults (assessed individually for large corporate borrowers and on a portfolio basis for other loans), interest rate risk from limited ability to adjust rates in response to rising funding costs, foreign exchange risk from asset and liability revaluation, and operational risk through additional losses in the first year of the adverse scenario.
Banks identified as requiring capital adequacy levels above regulatory thresholds must develop capitalization or restructuring programmes to achieve necessary capital levels and ensure overall banking system stability. The NBU will publish detailed resilience assessment results by year-end 2026. The stress testing approach was established through National Bank of Ukraine Board Decision No. 134-рш, which entered into force on May 1, 2026.
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1246 charsNational Bank of Ukraine Adopts Resolution on the Stability Assessment of Banks
On May 1, 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) adopted the Resolution on Amendments to the Terms of Reference for the Assessment of the Stability of Banks and the Banking System of Ukraine in 2026.
During the stress test, a bank's performance will be assessed over a three-year period under baseline and adverse scenarios.
The stress test assumes the realisation of the main risks inherent in banking activities:
Credit risk due to loan defaults.
Interest rate risk due to the limited ability of banks to respond with lending rates to a rapid increase in the cost of liabilities and a decrease in the interest margin.
Currency risk from the revaluation of banks' assets and liabilities, as well as indirectly through credit and interest rate risks.
Operational risk due to additional losses in the first year of an adverse scenario.
If the required capital adequacy levels of a bank determined based on the results of the sustainability assessment are higher than the regulatory values, the banks concerned will be required to draw up a capitalisation or restructuring programme.
The stress testing approach was established through this resolution, which entered into force on May 1, 2026 and remains in force until December 31, 2026.