meta_id 3044124

On 8 April 2026, Finanstilsynet (Denmark's Financial Supervisory Authority) published sector guidance following discussions with Denmark's largest credit institutions regarding their management of geopolitical credit risks during late 2025 and 2026. Finanstilsynet identified geopolitical uncertainty as a structural and permanent feature of the global risk landscape, rather than a temporary disruption. The authority highlighted that credit institutions are increasingly focused on sectors and companies dependent on exports, global supply chains, and stable energy and commodity prices—particularly those with significant exposure to China, the United States, and the Middle East. The discussions noted that the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 caused disruptions to energy supplies and trade routes, resulting in elevated and volatile energy prices and freight rates, placing particular pressure on energy and transport-intensive businesses. Finanstilsynet observed that larger institutions have strengthened risk management through enhanced monitoring, regular scenario analysis, and stress testing, though data limitations persist regarding indirect customer exposures and supply chain dependencies. Smaller institutions rely more on qualitative assessments and customer dialogue. The authority emphasised that impairment models cannot fully capture the changed risk landscape, requiring significant management judgment in impairment assessments—particularly regarding the probability and duration of a prolonged Iran conflict despite the recent ceasefire, and its potential long-term effects on oil and gas infrastructure. Finanstilsynet noted that customers have generally demonstrated adaptability and caution, with many improving liquidity and diversifying production, suppliers, and export markets geographically. However, some businesses remain severely affected by geopolitical developments. The authority stressed that institutions must remain flexible and vigilant, maintaining robust customer dialogue and supplementing impairment models with management judgment to address complex, evolving geopolitical risks.